[ANN] CDX Burst Prediction 1 (Let the games begin)



  • I was going to wait until tomorrow to release this, but it's ready to go now... so figured let's do it now.

    Welcome to the CDX BURST prediction market!

    This is the test run with an explanation of what's about to go down. We have two assets. One of the assets represents a "YES" side and the other represents a "NO" side. There will be a question presented. You buy shares in the asset that you think is the answer. If you are right (right is determined through consensus not opinion), you share 90% of the other sides tokens with all of your homies. This is paid out after the winning side has been determined.

    SO, are you ready? Okay coool.

    Here's the full page, but if you don't got no time for that....

    Question:
    Will the BURST asset price be over 125 Satoshis on November 30th at 12AM EST?

    YES - 11102465152772062815
    NO - 8872965343126416657

    Entries for this prediction close on November 17th! All remaining will be taken off the market on this date.

    🙂



  • Lol BURST binary trading 🙂

    Let the moneys roll!



  • Fun times hehe I'll put in a few thousand before the 17th hehehehe



  • Hey there @jakev ^_^
    If I understand correctly, you buy a share of the yes or no asset, and then if the answer was yes and I have no, I send 90% of the yes I hold to... and then I get lost, I send that to who?

    If everyone bet on the same "yes", what happens then if they win?
    If some users dont send/forget the "no" shares to the winning "yes" place, whan happens then?

    Thank you 😃


    Edit: I think I understand my first question now, they send back 90% to the shareholder (transfer) right?
    In this case, people could not send it back or sell it cheaper the next game.



  • Interesting concept, I'll wait until november 17th to bet 🙂



  • @Zeus Well the shares are just representations. Let's say 100K (50K from each side) for simplicity. BURST are stored in escrow. Winner is determined. 90K goes to winning side. So 1 token from the winning side would be distributed 1.8.

    Then you can keep the asset as memorabilia as it's now dead. Maybe worth something in 40-50 years if "vintage asset collector" becomes a thing though 🙂



  • @jakev i had tinkered with a one time use asset idea in my head 🙂 but i decided against it since i felt like i would litter on a blockchain 😃 I wonder if its possible to implement something like Asset Crematorium where transfered assets would go bye bye forever 🙂



  • @Gadrah_ said in [ANN] CDX Burst Prediction 1 (Let the games begin):

    Interesting concept, I'll wait until november 17th to bet 🙂

    I understand. It's a hard decision to figure out how to time these things. But there is also the perspective that this is not a "prediction market", but rather an "incentive market". In this case, it wouldn't matter when you enter the assets because your goal would be to figure out how to make your side correct. All that would matter in that instance is "I/we only have until November 30th to get the price over 125 Sats."



  • What about using a smart contract for this type of thing? I'm sure it could be done.

    It could pay automatically as well.

    lemme see if I can talk someone into making it.



  • @jakev I did not think about it this way, but it totally makes sense.



  • @LithStud said in [ANN] CDX Burst Prediction 1 (Let the games begin):

    @jakev i had tinkered with a one time use asset idea in my head 🙂 but i decided against it since i felt like i would litter on a blockchain 😃 I wonder if its possible to implement something like Asset Crematorium where transfered assets would go bye bye forever 🙂

    Yes that's funny because they actually call it "burning" tokens some places. I agree that this would be a great feature. I might like to keep one of them for sentimental value though.



  • @jakev I would keep it too, but my list of assets would soon be too messy. A nice feature would be the possibility to create folders in the asset section in the wallet



  • @crowetic said in [ANN] CDX Burst Prediction 1 (Let the games begin):

    What about using a smart contract for this type of thing? I'm sure it could be done.

    It could pay automatically as well.

    lemme see if I can talk someone into making it.

    @crowetic Would love to see this done in a smart contract. Happy to help however I can. Thank you for the support man!
    Also great ideas from both @Gadrah_ and @LithStud regarding the asset folders and asset creation ideas too. I know you are quite busy though and must prioritize all the awesome things being worked on.



  • It also seems like someone has scooped up all of the "NO" side here. Next time I will be creating more tokens on each side so one side does not get bought out completely. I will also make the spreads tighter if the question is in this similar category.

    Also helpful to keep in mind that the payouts only come from the other side, so right now the payouts would be 1:1 for the "NO" side. Since there are 1K tokens, that means at least 10 "YES" tokens need to be before the "NO" would get a 1.01 return.



  • @Gadrah_ said in [ANN] CDX Burst Prediction 1 (Let the games begin):

    @jakev I would keep it too, but my list of assets would soon be too messy. A nice feature would be the possibility to create folders in the asset section in the wallet

    You can right click on an aset inside the AE and put it into groups although i think it don't let you hide a group xD
    Another way of arrange this is if you create a "collector" wallet for your unused assets xD



  • @gpedro yeah, I need to create one of this 😛
    @jakev thanks a lot for your answers! I understand now ^_^



  • @gpedro I did not know that, thanks ! But my concern was organizing assets in the "my assets" category



  • @Gadrah_ Yeah regarding to that i guess the only thing you can do for now is use another wallet... The "collector" one xD



  • Update to the first prediction market.

    Open orders are officially closed. We had an interested event occur where one person bought up ALL of one side, and NO ONE bought any of the other. Next time we will be making tighter spreads and higher supply on each side.

    The buyer of all "No" side will be receiving 0.9 BURST for each put in, due to the 10% for fees and expenses. A dividend will be paid out to CDX ALPHA for this round. CDX Predict Round 2 (Updated and Improved) coming soon.



  • @jakev
    So they lost 0.1 Burst per Burst?